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Prediction for CME (2024-10-02T14:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-10-02T14:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/33688/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the S/SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and in a few frames of STEREO A imagery. The source is an eruption and subsequent M3.2 flare from AR 3842 (S18E09) starting around 2024-10-02T13:30Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304. There is a data gap in STEREO A COR2 imagery from 2024-10-02T14:08Z to 2024-10-02T17:08Z, in addition to being in campaign mode for the Parker Solar Probe perihelion pass which affects COR2A image quality and cadence. This CME would have been a good candidate for the observed 2024-10-06T06:55Z shock arrival at L1, however it had much slower speed than the observed solar wind speed of the shock at L1 (over 500 km/s), so the likelier candidate for the 2024-10-06T06:55Z arrival is the much faster 2024-10-03T12:48Z CME. Hence, the 2024-10-02T14:24Z CME may have been overtaken/swept by the faster 2024-10-03T12:48Z CME.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-10-06T00:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/33690/1
Model Inputs:
2024-10-02T14:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-7.0, Lat.=-22.0, Speed=437.0, HalfAngle=20.0, Time21.5=2024-10-02T21:17Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-10-06T00:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=4

Other Location(s) Impact:
Lucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-10-06T05:00Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-10-05T18:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241002_211700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241002_211700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241002_211700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241002_211700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241002_211700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241002_211700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241002_211700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241002_211700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241002_211700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241002_211700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241002_211700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241002_211700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241002_211700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241002_211700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 71.22 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Hannah Hermann (M2M Office) on 2024-10-03T00:47Z

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